What is Going on With Canada's Leaders?
What's Carney's Strategy? Why is Poilievre hiding in a car?
Mark Carney was booed at the Calgary Stampede this week, while Pierre Poilievre notably remained hidden in his car, refusing to face Carney during the annual pancake flip. A crowd member teased Carney saying that Trudeau was better at flipping pancakes. Both party leaders are experiencing struggles, though the ideal path forward for each remains unclear. Let’s examine this more closely.
Right-wing influencers have seized upon Carney's reception, arguing that the booing signals Alberta's appetite for separatism. Searching “Carney booed at Stampede” reveals a plethora of far-right commentary, but the reality appears more nuanced. In their excellent analysis of Alberta's recent by-elections, Philippe Fournier and Eric Grenier noted that the Republican Party of Alberta delivered middling performances, with their leader securing around 18% of the vote in his riding. According to Fournier and Grenier, there's a significant difference between garnering over 20% versus less than 10%. One indicates robust separatist sentiment, while the other suggests minimal support. Achieving 18% leaves the Republican Party's future uncertain—but it's likely this represents their peak. As the federal election fades further into the past, Albertan grievances may diminish. Will Albertans continue disliking the Liberals? Undoubtedly. But sustained anger about the current state of affairs will likely ebb, as political dynamics shift rapidly.
This brings us back to Carney: what exactly is his strategy? Does he have a strategy?
Carney positioned himself as a decisive leader with a strong backbone; indeed, this was central to his campaign promise. However, in practice, he has adopted a quieter, managerial approach—acting as the nation's CEO, directing his ministers behind the scenes while remaining relatively hands-off publicly. Carney and Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne have tasked other ministers with identifying substantial budget cuts. According to the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, these measures may result in the most significant federal budget reductions since Paul Martin’s austerity measures of the mid-1990s.
But do Canadians actually want these cuts?
Canadians have indicated they desire responsible governance that either lowers the cost of living or increases wages to meet new economic realities. Carney promised swift action on housing but has yet to unveil substantial policies. Although his cabinet has removed federal barriers to interprovincial trade, the practical impact for many consumers remains limited. Meanwhile, the Carney government has sacrificed significant revenue through minimal tax cuts for the lowest income bracket and by conceding to Donald Trump's demands regarding the Digital Goods Tax shortly after vowing not to.
Despite these issues, Carney maintains significant polling leads, though summer polls can be unreliable and sparse.
This leaves us with real questions. If the government ran deficits that resulted in meaningful housing developments and quality of life changes that were affordable to Canadians, would it face harsh scrutiny? Poilievre successfully framed large government spending as inflationary, yet ten years ago, Canadians rejected austerity. Canadians elected Trudeau on promises of substantial deficit-financed investments. The challenge with major national investments is their delayed impact; tangible results often take a decade or more. Even substantial federal housing investments, such as those initiated by Trudeau in 2019 and continued through today, only start showing effects after about seven to ten years. Hell, Carney may benefit from Trudeau’s investment cycles even if he takes no action.
Why is Carney taking the path of austerity? Is he attempting to appeal to conservative voters? The strategy seems aimed at long-term conservative support, but Alberta remains uninterested, and eastern conservatives seem to like the progressive conservative styles of these blue liberals.
Carney could champion the strongest oil industry in Canadian history, yet Alberta’s electorate would likely remain opposed due to historical grievances that go all the way back to Pierre Elliot Trudeau. Would Carney be better off governing without focusing on Alberta’s approval? Only time will tell.
Meanwhile, Poilievre’s refusal to exit his vehicle at the Stampede breakfast—where both leaders were present—has drawn attention. CTV and CBC reported that Poilievre waited in his car until Carney left, raising questions about his strategy.
Poilievre is relatively popular in Alberta, representing a right-wing populism reflective of the region. A Calgary native, Poilievre initially embodied the grassroots conservatism that defined early Western populism in Canada. Despite his current image as an Ottawa elite, his roots remain firmly planted in Alberta's conservative tradition.
So why is Poilievre refusing to be around Carney?
It’s a real question, considering the strong man politics that the man represented during the past several years of Canadian politics. Although much of the country is looking in horror at Trump, and saw Poilievre reflected in that, there seems to be less and less of an escape for Poilievre. He’s falling in the polls across the country, and is less popular in Canada than his very party. It seems that Canadians are happy with their choice, and Carney is the most popular Progressive Conservative to run the country since Mulroney. Poilievre is floundering and struggling to find any media attention. His leadership review is coming up, and it's unclear whether or not he can regain that energy that he enjoyed for so long. He is currently falling further in the polls and is much less popular than the very party he leads. Carney is by far the preferred man for the prime ministerial position.
It is important to note that he will most likely easily win the byelection to get him back into parliament however, so the future is more dependent on his party and how the electorate feels around his leadership, going from being likely to win the largest majority in Canadian history, to losing quite handily.
In the end, politics can change at any time, and we’ll have to wait and see how long this honeymoon and grace period Canadians have given to Carney will last, and if Poilievre will survive the cutthroat climate of the Canadian constituency.